Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months, U.S. officials say, given its poorly trained troops and Ukraine’s robust defenses, now bolstered by Western munitions.
During the spring and early summer, Russian troops attempted to advance out of the city of Kharkiv and renew their offensive in eastern Ukraine, capitalizing on the capture of Avdiivka. However, these efforts resulted in thousands of Russian casualties and very little territorial gains.
This shift represents a significant change in the dynamics of the war, which had recently favored Moscow. While Russian forces continue to inflict damage, their progress has been slowed by strengthened Ukrainian defense lines.
The coming months will not be easy for Ukraine, but allied leaders gathered in Washington this week to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding can argue that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.
“Ukrainian forces are under pressure and facing months of difficult fighting, but a major breakthrough by Russia is now unlikely,” said Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine.
During the summit, leaders are expected to pledge new funding for Ukraine, announce plans to coordinate the alliance’s arms supplies and reiterate their promise that Kiev will eventually become a full-fledged ally.
This last point has become the crux of the conflict, even more important than territorial claims. While Ukrainian officials insist they are fighting to reclaim their land, a growing number of U.S. officials believe the war is primarily about Ukraine’s future in NATO and the European Union.
At the heart of the summit is concern over Russia’s acquisition of weapons (particularly missiles, drones and components to build them) from Iran, North Korea and China.
And in the third year of a devastating war, there are real concerns about Ukraine’s ability to keep its infrastructure, including its power grid, functioning despite long-range Russian strikes.
But the biggest unknown may be U.S. policy toward Ukraine after this fall’s presidential election.
With Russia unable to seize much of Ukraine, Kiev’s prospects of retaking more territory from the invading army are also fading. Urged by American advisers, Ukraine is focusing on strengthening its defenses and striking deep behind Russian lines.
Eric Ciaramella, a former intelligence official now a Ukraine expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that over the past 18 months it has become clear that neither Russia nor Ukraine “possess the capabilities to significantly shift the battle lines.”
The United States, Ciaramella said, has always defined its strategic goal as “a democratic, prosperous, European, and secure Ukraine.” According to Ciaramella and current U.S. officials, the United States and its allies will need to make long-term investments to enable Ukraine to hold its lines, wear down Russia, and inflict damage.
“It’s still a highly volatile landscape,” Ciaramella said. “That’s why Western leaders really need to focus on integrating Ukraine into European and transatlantic security structures.”
Last month, the European Union agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine, a key step in the long accession process. While NATO is not yet ready to invite Ukraine to join, allied leaders are poised to approve language this week promising Kiev it will become part of the alliance.
The statement is aimed at avoiding a repeat of last year’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, where leaders declared that “Ukraine’s future is NATO” but failed to follow through with concrete calls. Diplomats called the convoluted language a “word salad,” and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky angrily complained about the lack of a timetable for membership.
The possibility of Ukraine joining NATO seemed remote before Russia’s invasion in 2022. Allies were reluctant to provoke Russia or take on what seemed like a vast security commitment. Since then, Ukraine’s partnership with the United States, Britain and other European countries has strengthened, and the West has invested billions of dollars in training and equipping the Ukrainian military.
Keeping Ukraine out of NATO has been a goal of Russian President Vladimir V. Putin since the war began, a goal that his invasion ironically made more possible. Peace talks in April 2022 broke down when Moscow insisted on Ukraine’s neutrality and a veto on any external military assistance.
Since then, Ukraine has made ever greater efforts to integrate into Europe.
Russia seized the most pro-Russian parts of Ukraine in the first year of the war. U.S. officials say privately that it will be virtually impossible for Ukraine to recapture all of its territory, but that it can insist on greater European integration if its performance on the battlefield is stronger.
Some officials argue that even without formally regaining its territory, Ukraine could still emerge victorious from the war by moving closer to NATO and Europe.
Officials interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss classified military and intelligence assessments, battlefield postures and sensitive diplomacy.
American officials acknowledge that Russia could make significant progress if a major strategic shift occurred, such as by expanding its military training and conscription program.
Their forecasts would also be undermined if US policy toward Ukraine and Russia changed.
Under the Biden administration, the United States has provided military advice, real-time intelligence, and billions of dollars in weapons.
Former President Donald J. Trump has pledged to initiate peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine if elected. While he has not yet outlined the terms of the peace he would like to achieve, a swift negotiation would likely force Ukraine to cede large swathes of territory and abandon its ambitions for NATO membership.
But officials say asking for negotiations to begin now would be a mistake. Some $61 billion in aid approved by Congress in May after months of wrangling is bolstering Ukraine’s defenses and blocking Russia’s territorial advance.
During the war, U.S. intelligence agencies were far more pessimistic about Ukraine’s prospects than the Pentagon, whose top officials worked closely with the Ukrainian military to help it develop its strategy. But assessments across the U.S. government now appear to be more aligned about Russia’s prospects on the battlefield.
Thanks to electronic devices from China, drones from Iran, and missiles and artillery from North Korea, Russia has secured enough weapons to supply its army.
But it doesn’t have enough staff to make a significant breakthrough.